Preliminary Report
Tropical Storm Josephine
04 - 16 October 1996

1996 PRELIMINARY REPORTS

Tropical Storm Arthur (TS)
Hurricane Bertha (3)
Hurricane Cesar (1)
Hurricane Dolly (1)
Hurricane Edouard (4)
Hurricane Fran (3)
Tropical Storm Gustav (TS)
Hurricane Hortense (4)
Hurricane Isidore (3)
Tropical Storm Josephine (TS)
Tropical Storm Kyle (TS)
Hurricane Lili (3)
Hurricane Marco (1)

Josephine made landfall in the eastern Apalachee Bay, Florida area as a 69-mph tropical storm.

 

a. Synoptic History

The origin of Josephine does not appear to be directly related to a tropical wave. On 29-30 September, a front, which had moved over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, stalled over that area. A broad area of cloudiness and showers was noted over the southwest Gulf beginning around this time. This disturbed weather appears to have been caused mainly by the front, but could also be partially ascribed to a tropical wave which passed over the extreme southern Gulf on 29 September. This wave led to the formation of Hernan in the eastern Pacific. A broad area of low pressure developed near the Bay of Campeche on 1-2 October, but upper-tropospheric winds were only marginally favorable for development, and the associated deep convection was not persistent until the 3rd. The surface circulation became better defined on the 4th, on which day the system received its initial Dvorak classification from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB). Meanwhile, the strong pressure gradient between the low and a large high pressure system centered near the Great Lakes began to produce strong winds across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was dispatched to the system on the afternoon of the 4th and data from the aircraft indicated that a tropical cyclone, Tropical Depression Ten, had formed. Based on aircraft, surface and satellite data, the estimated time of genesis is 1800 UTC 4 October. Initially, steering currents were weak and the depression moved slowly north-northeastward on the 4th and 5th. Southwesterly shearing was present over the system and there was no significant increase in organization until the 6th. Even though the depression did not intensify during the first couple of days of its existence, the strong pressure gradient persisted over the northern Gulf, producing gale to storm force winds over that area. By midday on the 6th, aircraft observations indicated that the central pressure had dropped to 1001 mb. Banding features on satellite images became better defined and it is estimated that the cyclone strengthened into Tropical Storm Josephine at 1800 UTC 6 October.

A strong mid-latitude, deep-layer trough began to dominate the eastern half of the United States, and on the 6th and 7th the tropical storm was steered eastward to northeastward, at an increasing forward speed, on the southeast flank of this trough. Early on the 7th, Josephine strengthened significantly and was nearing hurricane intensity. This development trend proved to be temporary, however, as vertical shear began to increase over the northeast Gulf. Josephine's cloud structure became more asymmetric, with nearly all of the deep convection northeast of the center. The storm's intensity leveled off at 69 mph. The center moved over Apalachee Bay on the evening of the 7th, and crossed the coast in a relatively uninhabited region of north Florida, in Taylor County, at about 0330 UTC on the 8th of October.

Josephine was already beginning to lose its tropical characteristics when it crossed the coast, since temperature at Keaton Beach dropped about 6C in one hour shortly after the storm moved inland. The system became an extratropical cyclone by the time it entered Georgia at 0600 UTC 8 October. The cyclone's forward speed increased dramatically, to near 46 mph, and the extratropical low raced northeastward near the U.S. east coast, passing close to Cape Cod at 0600 UTC on the 9th. The low traversed Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on 9-10 October, and then emerged over the north Atlantic. It moved eastward for a day or two, slowing its forward speed. Then the system tracked counter-clockwise within a deep-layer cyclonic flow regime over the northeastern Atlantic on the 12th through the 15th. Finally, the extratropical remnant of Josephine merged with a larger extratropical cyclone in the vicinity of Iceland on 16 October.

b. Meteorological Statistics

The minimum central pressure reported in Josephine, by the Hurricane Hunters, was 981 mb at 1135 UTC 7 October. Highest flight-level (850 mb) winds near that time were 76 mph. The maximum flight-level wind reported by reconnaissance aircraft was 85 mph at 0050 UTC 8 October. Josephine's maximum surface winds were estimated to be 69 mph from 1200 UTC on the 7th up to landfall 16 hours later. Aircraft observations indicated that, at most, a partial eyewall was present on three center fixes during the above period.

1. Storm Surge

2. Rainfall Data

3. Tornadoes

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

Total insured losses from Josephine in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia are estimated to be $65 Million. This gives a rough estimate of $130 Million for the total storm damage. There were no deaths that could be directly attributed to Josephine. A woman suffered a heart attack during a tornado in Edgewater, and a surfer suffered a broken leg in Pinellas County.