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1999 PRELIMINARY
REPORTS |
Emily formed about 360 nautical miles east of the southern Windward Islands and its track and intensity were primarily controlled by the much larger circulation of Hurricane Cindy. a. Synoptic HistoryVertical timesections constructed from RAOB data from Dakar and low-level cloud wind analysis from the University of Wisconsin show three distinct wind-shifts associated with a cluster of tropical waves which moved off the coast of Africa between the 14th and the 19th of August. Figure 1 is a sequence of once a day satellite images which shows the evolution of these tropical waves while moving over the tropical Atlantic and from which Dennis, Emily and Cindy eventually formed. The area of low-cloud cyclonic rotation and thunderstorm activity associated with the pre-Emily tropical wave (marked with E in Fig.1) moved toward the west-southwest and gradually became organized. A post-analysis of satellite images and surface data indicates that a tropical depression formed at 0600 UTC 24 August about 360 nautical miles east of the southern Windward Islands. An Air Force reconnaissance plane reached the area later on that day and found a small circulation of 1004 mb central pressure and 63-mph winds at 1500 feet. Surface winds were estimated to be 52 mph at this time and this turned out to be Emily's peak intensity. Emily was in a strong shearing environment resulting from both the outflow and the inflow of the much larger Cindy, which was gradually approaching Emily. Consequently, the deep convection was at times removed from the circulation. However, convective bursts continued to redevelop near the center. Because of the high variability in the convection throughout the entire lifetime of the tropical cyclone, Dvorak T-numbers were up and down. Reconnaissance data indicated that the maximum intensity remained between 40 and 46 mph during that period. Cindy disrupted the easterly
trade-wind flow around Emily and resulted in Emily moving slowly toward
the northwest and north embedded within a weak steering flow. Emily eventually
was absorbed by the much larger circulation associated with Cindy
on the 28 August. b. Meteorological Statistics The best track pressure and wind curves as a function of
time are shown in and are primarily based on data provided from the six
reconnaissance missions flown into Emily by Air Force aircraft. Satellite
intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB),
the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the Air Force Weather Agency,
(AFGWC in the figures) and data from drifting buoys were also included
in the analysis. c. Casualty and Damage StatisticsThere are no reports of casualty and damage from Emily.
Maximum
Intensity For Tropical Storm Emily
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