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2002 PRELIMINARY
REPORTS |
Dolly was the first Atlantic basin tropical cyclone to develop in the deep tropics in 2002. a. Synoptic HistoryDolly developed from a tropical wave that moved off the west
coast of Africa on 27 August. As the wave moved westward, ship observations
indicated that the wave was accompanied by an area of low pressure and
satellite images showed increasing thunderstorm activity. The system moved
west and west-southwest and became a tropical depression at 1200 UTC 29
August about 550 nautical miles southwest of the westernmost Cape Verde
Islands. The depression quickly became better organized, developing well-defined
cyclonically curved convective bands and good outflow in all quadrants.
It became a tropical storm by 1800 UTC on the same day and reached its
peak intensity of 58 mph and a minimum pressure of 997 mb at 1200 UTC
30 August. Dolly moved toward the west and west-northwest around the periphery
of a subtropical ridge for a couple of days. Thereafter, tropical cyclone
curved to the northwest and then north ahead of a mid-level trough with
a minor fluctuation in intensity at 0000 UTC 3 September when convection
decreased. It finally became a remnant low late on 4 September when strong
shear removed most of the convection, and ultimately became absorbed by
the trough. b. Meteorological StatisticsOperationally, the maximum winds in Dolly were 63 mph at
1200 UTC 30 August based on a 3.5 Dvorak classification. However, a post-analysis
of visible images showed that the low level-center was not embedded completely
within the deep convection. This suggested that Dolly was a weaker tropical
cyclone and the maximum winds have been adjusted to 58 mph in the best
track. c. Casualty and Damage StatisticsThere were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Dolly.
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