Preliminary Report
Tropical Storm Jerry
22 - 28 August 1995

1995 PRELIMINARY REPORTS

Hurricane Allison (1)
Tropical Storm Barry (TS)
Tropical Storm Chantal (TS)
Tropical Storm Dean (TS)
Hurricane Erin (2)
Hurricane Felix (4)
Tropical Storm Gabrielle (TS)
Hurricane Humberto (2)
Hurricane Iris (2)
Tropical Storm Jerry (TS)
Tropical Storm Karen (TS)
Hurricane Luis (4)
Hurricane Marilyn (3)
Hurricane Noel (1)
Hurricane Opal (4)
Tropical Storm Pablo (TS)
Hurricane Roxanne (3)
Tropical Storm Sebastien (TS)
Hurricane Tanya (1)

Jerry spread heavy rains over portions of the southeastern United States.

 

a. Synoptic History

Satellite images indicate that an area of cloudiness, associated with a tropical wave that left western Africa on 9 August, propagated westward across the tropical Atlantic from the 9th to the 15th of August. Even though convection increased when the wave neared the Lesser Antilles on the 15th, there were no large surface pressure falls noted in those islands. When the wave moved over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, rawinsonde data from San Juan and Santo Domingo revealed that the system was fairly strong at mid- to lower-tropospheric levels, as evidenced by 35- to 46-mph wind reports east of the wave axis at 850 and 700 mb.

By the 19th, satellite pictures and surface data gave some evidence of a low-level circulation centered near 18N 75W at 1200 UTC. No further development occurred during the next couple of days as the system moved west-northwestward to northwestward, interacting with the mountainous land mass of eastern Cuba. On the 22nd, cloudiness and convection became better organized near the western Bahamas, and surface reports indicate that a tropical depression formed from this system a short distance southwest of Andros Island at 1800 UTC 22 August. Upper-level winds were partially favorable for development, since anticylonic outflow prevailed over the eastern half of the depression while outflow was inhibited to the west and northwest.

As the depression moved north-northwestward toward southeast Florida, slow strengthening took place. Based on measurements from a NOAA plane, it is estimated that the system strengthened to a tropical storm around 1200 UTC on the 23rd. Tropical Storm Jerry made landfall later that same day near Jupiter, Florida as a 40-mph storm. Jerry moved northwest to west-northwest across the Florida peninsula, weakening back to a tropical depression by 1800 UTC on the 24th while nearing the upper west coast of Florida. The forward motion slowed, and after the center drifted a short distance out over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Jerry turned toward the north and moved inland again over northern Florida and across the Georgia/Florida border on 25 August.

The weak depression moved slowly northward to north-northwestward over Georgia on the 26th and 27th. Later on the 27th, Jerry turned eastward toward South Carolina. By 0000 UTC on the 28th, the circulation of Jerry became elongated in a northeast-southwest oriented trough, and six hours later it was impossible to distinguish a circulation center. However, the trough persisted near the Carolinas during the next couple of days and two discrete low pressure centers appeared. The first moved eastward from the coast of North Carolina into the Atlantic without significant development. The second became evident just offshore of the Georgia/South Carolina border early on the 29th. This weak surface low moved southward and southwestward, across the Florida peninsula on 30-31 August, and died a slow death over the southeast Gulf of Mexico during the first few days of September. There was, and still is, confusion concerning which, if any, of these two lows was derived from the original circulation of Jerry.

b. Meteorological Statistics

The highest flight-level wind measurement from aerial reconnaissance of Jerry was 52 mph at an altitude of 1500 feet, taken from a NOAA plane at 1621 UTC 23 August. Sustained winds of 40 mph and a gust to 49 mph were observed at Lake Worth Inlet, Florida (close to the landfall point) at 2100 UTC 23 August. Patrick Air Force Base reported sustained winds of 43 mph gusting to 58 mph at 0640 UTC 24 August. Sustained winds of 43 mph with a gust to 63 mph, at an elevation of 54 feet above ground level, were recorded at Cape Canaveral at 1420 UTC 24 August.

The only known ship report of tropical storm force winds associated with Jerry was from the vessel Atlantic Erie: winds 120/39 mph, and pressure 1012.0 mb, at 28.7°N 78.4°W on 0600 UTC 24 August. This was about 155 nautical miles to the east-northeast of the storm center.

1. Storm Surge Data

Storm tides were generally 1 to 2 feet above normal along the southeast and central east coast of Florida, and 1 to 1.5 feet above normal along the west coast of Florida, due to Jerry.

2. Rainfall Data

Jerry caused very heavy rainfall over Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Rainfall totals of up to 10 to 15 inches were reported over the southwest and west-central coastal sections of Florida from the Naples/Ft. Myers area northward to Tampa, with one total of 16.80 inches at Golden Gate (east of Naples). Rainfall totals over southeast Florida were generally 3 to 8 inches, although locally heavier rainfall in the 9 to 10 inch range occurred in Martin and St. Lucie counties. Rainfall amounts of at least 8 inches occurred over eastern Georgia. Rainfall totals exceeded 12 inches over portions of western South Carolina. Rainfall amounts reached 8 to 9 inches over parts of North Carolina, with local totals of 15 to 17 inches over portions of north-central North Carolina.

3. Tornadoes

A waterspout was observed over Tampa Bay east of the St. Petersburg Pier at 1840 UTC on the 23rd. A small, brief tornado was observed 10 nautical miles west of Zephyrhills in Pasco County, FL at 1647 UTC on the 24th. No damage was reported. Another, presumably minor, tornado was observed 6 nautical miles west of Ruskin in Hillsborough County, FL at 1547 UTC on the 25th.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

There were 6 deaths attributed to Jerry; 3 in South Carolina and 3 in North Carolina.

In Florida, freshwater flooding near the west coast was responsible for most of the damage from Jerry. Three-hundred forty buildings were damaged in Collier County, Florida, with 12 uninhabitable. Flooding was particularly severe in Lee and Charlotte counties. Property damage in Florida totalled $1.5 Million and damage to agriculture was estimated to be $19 Million. Damage figures due to flooding over the remainder of the southeast U.S. are incomplete. The governor of North Carolina estimated $6 Million in uninsured losses in the Raleigh area. This makes a total damage estimate for Jerry of $26.5 Million, although additional (unknown) flood damage likely took place in Georgia and South Carolina.