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1995 PRELIMINARY
REPORTS |
a. Synoptic HistoryKaren originated from a tropical wave that moved off the
west coast of Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic on 23 August. This
was a very active day in the tropics with Hurricane Humberto midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles, Hurricane Iris about 500 nautical miles east
of the Lesser Antilles, Tropical Storm Jerry near southeast Florida
and Tropical Storm Gil in the eastern North Pacific. Based on ship and
island reports, NHC surface analyses indicated a broad area of low pressure
just off the west coast of Africa in association with the tropical wave.
Dvorak classifications were initiated by the NESDIS Synoptic Analysis
Branch (SAB) and the NHC Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB)
on the 23rd and 24th, respectively. The organization of the cloud pattern
fluctuated for a couple of days, and the system could have become a tropical
depression as early as on the 24th when the center appeared to be southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands. Some reorganization occurred and satellite
analysts from SAB, NHC and the Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC)
all agreed on a T1.5 classification for the first time near 1200 UTC 26
August, when satellite imagery showed a well-defined low-level cloud center
exposed to the east of a cluster of deep convection. The post- analysis
"best track" begins Tropical Depression Twelve at that time about 500
nautical miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. In relation to Tropical
Depression Twelve, Hurricane Humberto was centered about 900
nautical miles west-northwest and Iris, which had weakened to a tropical storm,
was centered over the Lesser Antilles about 1500 nautical miles west.
The depression was moving generally toward the west-northwest at 12 to
16 mph with the low- to mid-level flow. Deep convection increased and, based on satellite classifications,
Tropical Depression Twelve strengthened into Tropical Storm Karen at 0600
UTC 28 August. Hurricane Humberto had moved northward by
this time and was centered about 750 nautical miles to the northwest of
Karen. Tropical Storm Iris had also moved northward
to a position just north of the Leeward Islands, about 1100 nautical miles
to the west of Karen. Humberto continued moving northward and then
northeastward away from Karen. The steering flow weakened somewhat in
the wake of Humberto, and Karen slowed its west-northwestward
motion from 12 to about 5 mph between 28 and 31 August. Karen gradually
approached the even slower moving Iris, which had again strengthened to a hurricane
by late on the 28th. The upper-level outflow from the stronger Iris resulted in northerly shear over Karen,
and the low- level center of Karen was exposed to the north of the accompanying
convective activity from 28 to 31 August. During this period, Karen's
maximum sustained winds of 52 mph were estimated to have occurred. Karen was centered
about 600 nautical miles east-southeast of Iris on the 31st, and began moving more toward
the northwest, caught in Iris' stronger circulation. Convective activity associated with Karen became disorganized
on 1 September as the tropical storm accelerated and moved cyclonically
around the east side of Iris. Karen weakened to a tropical depression
on 2 September. However, a tightly wrapped swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds could still be seen in satellite imagery moving to the north of
Iris late on the 2nd. The remnant vortex of Karen
was finally absorbed into the stronger circulation of Hurricane
Iris on 3 September when located approximately 175 nautical miles
to the northwest of the center of Iris.
b. Meteorological Statistics
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| Date/Time (UTC) |
Position | Pressure (mb) |
Wind Speed (mph) |
Stage | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lat. (°N) | Lon. (°W) | ||||
| 29/0600 | 17.8 | 45.5 | 1000 | 50 | Tropical Storm |
